Elise Mertens vs Lanlana Tararudee: Predictions

Match overview: veteran consistency meets fearless ambition

The Australian Open always delivers a few “welcome to the big stage” moments in round one, and Elise Mertens vs Lanlana Tararudee has that exact feel. On one side you’ve got Mertens, the seasoned Belgian who has made a career out of being reliably difficult to beat—especially in early Slam rounds. On the other, Tararudee, a rising Thai talent with the kind of momentum that can make a newcomer dangerous, particularly on hard courts where first-strike tennis can flip a match quickly.

Kick-off is set for 2026-01-19 at 04:30:00 UTC in Melbourne, and the market leans heavily toward the established name: Mertens is priced at 1.25 to win, while Tararudee sits at 4.25. That gap reflects the classic “gatekeeper vs breakout hopeful” dynamic—Mertens is expected to protect her ranking and progress, while Tararudee is chasing a statement win that could accelerate her arrival on the main tour.

Odds, AI angle, and what the market is really saying

From a betting perspective, these odds imply that bookmakers see Mertens as the far more likely winner, with Tararudee needing a near-perfect performance (or a Mertens off-day) to pull the upset. That aligns with the model output too: Tennis Predictions generated using Artificial Intelligence points to a “1” (first player to win) as the top call, with a confidence score of 6.2/10 and odds of 1.25.

A 6.2/10 confidence is notable: it’s supportive, but not screaming “lock.” In tennis terms, that usually means the favorite has clear structural advantages—experience, rally tolerance, return quality—but the underdog has enough weapons to create patches of volatility (a hot serving set, a forehand streak, or a tiebreak swing).

The total games lean under as well, with the suggested angle being Under 26.5 games at 1.29. That’s a market-friendly way of saying: “If Mertens wins, it may not need three long sets.”

Recent form and momentum: steady hands vs rapid rise

Mertens enters the new season with the kind of profile bettors tend to trust in round one: a proven top-level competitor who rarely gifts early exits to lower-ranked opponents. She’s long been viewed as one of the tour’s most dependable performers—someone who may not always dominate headlines, but consistently handles business against players outside the elite tier. The lead-in narrative around her is familiar too: a solid prior season, top-30 stability, and a warm-up swing that suggests she’s match-ready rather than still searching for timing.

Tararudee’s story is different, and that’s what makes this matchup intriguing. She arrives with “nothing-to-lose” energy after a breakout year on the WTA 125 and ITF circuits, the kind of progression that often translates into real belief. Players who climb quickly tend to swing freely early in Slams because, psychologically, they’re playing with upside rather than pressure. Reports from her warm-up events point to improved comfort handling pace—an important detail when you’re about to face someone who redirects the ball as well as Mertens.

Playing styles: offense vs defense, and where the match can turn

This matchup sets up as a tactical contrast that’s easy to understand for bettors.

Elise Mertens is an all-court player with a strong counterpunching base. She absorbs pace, changes direction, and makes opponents hit extra shots—often the hidden tax that breaks down aggressive players over time. Two traits stand out in this specific matchup:
– Her backhand down the line, a pattern that can punish opponents who camp on crosscourt forehands.
– Her net instincts and finishing ability, sharpened by years of elite doubles success. When Mertens chooses to move forward, she tends to do it with purpose, not hope.

Lanlana Tararudee brings a more modern, aggressive baseline identity. Her forehand is the headline shot: flatter, powerful, and designed to take time away. That style can absolutely work on Melbourne hard courts, especially if she’s striking early and keeping the ball through the court. The trade-off is that high-risk offense can leak errors when rallies extend or when the opponent keeps changing the picture with depth, height, and variety.

So what’s the key interaction? Expect Tararudee to try to shorten points—big forehands, quick holds, and pressure on Mertens’ second serve. Mertens’ plan is usually the opposite: extend rallies, vary the ball (slice, changes of pace, occasional drop shots), and force the younger player to win the match multiple times over. If Tararudee’s first-strike accuracy dips, Mertens is the type to quietly run away with a set.

Surface and Melbourne conditions: who benefits on Greenset?

The Australian Open’s Greenset hard courts are typically medium-fast with a true bounce—good for clean ball-strikers, but also rewarding for elite movers who defend and counter. That’s why this matchup isn’t purely “power wins.” If the heat rises and the match becomes physical, Mertens’ experience managing tempo and patterns can become a major edge.

At the same time, Tararudee’s background suggests she won’t be intimidated by humidity or hot conditions. If anything, comfort in those environments can help an underdog stay composed. The question is less about weather tolerance and more about whether she can maintain first-strike efficiency when Mertens keeps making her hit one extra ball.

Stakes and psychology: ranking protection vs career opportunity

Round one pressure is different depending on who you are. For Mertens, this is about protecting points, avoiding a damaging early loss, and keeping her reputation as a consistent Slam performer intact. For Tararudee, it’s the opposite: a chance to grab a career-defining win, potentially her first major main-draw breakthrough against a recognized name.

There’s also a broader storyline: Thai women’s tennis has been waiting for another deep singles run on the biggest stages, and Tararudee has the opportunity to carry that “next wave” narrative forward. That kind of motivation can be powerful—but it can also tighten the arm if she starts thinking about the moment instead of the next point.

Head-to-head and historical context

This is the first professional meeting between Mertens and Tararudee, so there’s no direct head-to-head data to lean on. In these situations, bettors typically default to what’s most stable: Slam experience, return quality, and the ability to problem-solve mid-match. Those are categories where Mertens has a clear track record, including her history of strong results in Melbourne and her reputation for showing up prepared.

Best bets and betting tips for Mertens vs Tararudee

Given the odds (1.25 vs 4.25), the straight moneyline on Mertens is priced as a “banker” style selection—useful for parlays, but not always ideal as a standalone if you’re hunting value. The more interesting angle is aligning with the expected match script: Mertens controlling enough return games to avoid a marathon.

Best tip: Under 26.5 total games (odds 1.29)

Why it makes sense:
– If Mertens wins in two sets with a break advantage in each, the total often lands comfortably under.
– Even a three-set match can sneak under 26.5 if one set is lopsided (a common pattern when an aggressive underdog has a dip).
– It matches the idea that Mertens’ consistency can create separation once Tararudee’s error count rises.

If you prefer the simplest approach, Mertens to win is the logical side and aligns with the AI pick (confidence 6.2/10). Just remember: Tararudee’s upside is real, and her best chance is to start fast, serve well, and keep points short before Mertens settles into her rhythm.

Final word: what to watch in the first 30 minutes

For live bettors, the opening stretch should tell you a lot. Watch Tararudee’s first-serve percentage and whether her forehand is landing deep without overcooking. If Mertens is consistently getting returns back and extending rallies past 6–8 shots, the match begins to tilt toward the favorite’s comfort zone. If Tararudee is holding quickly and stepping inside the baseline on second serves, you may see a tighter set than the odds suggest—at least early.

Either way, this is a compelling Australian Open opener: a proven Melbourne performer against a fearless climber trying to turn promise into a headline.