Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Prediction
The price is short, but the recent matchup gives it substance. Our pick is Naomi Osaka to win at odds of 1.34. This Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens prediction carries measured rather than overwhelming confidence, with the AI rating the favorite’s chances a little above six out of ten. They meet in the US Open third round on Sunday at midnight UTC, with a place in the last 16 awaiting the winner.
Osaka can take time away from Mertens again
The clearest reference point came in Toronto on 7 August, when Osaka beat Mertens 6-1, 6-2. That score is difficult to ignore because it shows what can happen when Osaka establishes her court position early. She also defeated the Belgian in straight sets at Bad Homburg on 23 June, so this is not a case built around one unusually sharp afternoon.
From a player’s perspective, the first two shots after the serve matter most here. Osaka wants to land, recover and strike again without giving up the baseline. When her feet stay close enough to the court, her weight moves through the ball and Mertens has less time to change direction or introduce variation. The Belgian is an accomplished problem-solver, but defending repeatedly from behind the baseline is a demanding pattern against Osaka’s pace.
Osaka’s recent hard-court work supports that tactical edge. She beat Leylah Fernandez 6-4, 6-4 in the Toronto round of 16 before losing to Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals, and she also reached the Washington semifinals. Her rise to No. 13, after being ranked No. 747 in February 2024, reflects a sustained return rather than one isolated tournament.
Her second-round performance in New York was uneven but ultimately forceful. Osaka defeated Katerina Siniakova 6-2, 5-7, 6-1, responding to the lost middle set by conceding only one game in the decider. That reset is important. A player who can clear a disappointing set from her mind and restore aggressive footwork immediately is less likely to let a favorite’s pressure become restrictive.
The market makes Osaka the 1.34 favorite against Mertens at 4.00. Those odds leave little room for a slow start, yet the two 2026 head-to-head wins—and particularly the 6-1, 6-2 Toronto result—make the favorite easier to support than the prices alone might suggest. The under 27.5 games at 1.29 is also a modest lean, though the match winner is the cleaner position.
Mertens brings rhythm, resilience and recent match volume
The danger is that Mertens arrives with plenty of competitive tennis in her legs. She reached the Monterrey final on hard courts, recovering from a 1-6 opening set to beat Nikola Bartunkova 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the semifinals. She then lost 4-6, 6-0, 3-6 to Diane Parry in the final. That run demonstrated both resilience and the ability to alter a match after being outplayed early.
In New York, Mertens advanced through the second round by beating Maria Timofeeva 6-2, 7-6 (7/3). Closing the second-set tiebreak without being dragged into a decider should help physically, especially after her Monterrey workload. Ranked No. 20 and seeded 23rd, she is too established to be treated as a routine outsider.
Her route to an upset is to make Osaka hit one more controlled ball before opening the court. Mertens cannot afford to feed the same tempo repeatedly; she needs changes of height, depth and direction that disturb Osaka’s contact point. If she can extend the early exchanges, the favorite may begin pressing for lines rather than constructing space.
There is also a mental opening. After beating Siniakova, Osaka admitted she had been too hard on herself when opportunities passed in the second set. I know that feeling from the court: once frustration tightens the shoulders, the feet often stop making the final adjustment step. Mertens must exploit any such spell by protecting serve and keeping the scoreboard close.
Osaka’s August withdrawal from Cincinnati because of fatigue is another reason not to present 1.34 as risk-free. Even so, her decisive recovery against Siniakova, superior ranking and two straight-set victories over Mertens this season point toward the two-time US Open champion controlling enough of the baseline exchanges to advance.